香港人口出生率跌至0.8%，为全球最低。一份最新公布的网上调查显示，在18至40岁没有子女的受访者中，逾六成没有生育计划。香港人口老化问题难见纾缓，这将对香港可持续发展产生深远影响，关乎教育、安老、住房、劳工政策等方方面面。为今之计，特区m88既要继续创造生育友善的环境，放宽移民政策，更要从大湾区建设、推动资源最佳配置的宏观角度，进一步完善本港的人口政策。
在香港的深层次矛盾和问题中，人口结构变化是其中之一。相比30年前，香港社会年龄中位数由31岁增至43岁；男女初婚年龄显著推迟；每千名适龄女性的生育数字由1200多人减至现在的700多人。为鼓励生育，历届特区m88推出不少措施，包括增加子女免税额、增加讬儿服务、增加侍产假等，可惜实际效果欠佳。上述调查揭示了不愿生育的原因，76.9%受访者归咎于居住空间不足，63.9%指为人父母责任沉重。问及如何提升生育意愿，过半数认为应改善教育环境，或为生育、育儿提供经济支持。
要有效提升生育意愿，需对症下药。特区m88加大了拓土建屋的力度，随着北部都会区和东大屿填海计划的推进，“地从何来”有了明确方向。当然，拓土建屋不能一蹴而就，居住空间短期内难有实质性的改善。在增加讬儿服务方面，受到空间和劳动力不足的局限。另外，基于纳税人减少及税基狭窄，决定了香港在支持生育方面存在着资源的天花板。在可见的未来，香港将维持低出生率，整个社会越来越变得“老化”，各行各业“人手荒”加剧，这是我们必须面对的现实。
生育率低和人口老化是明升体育性问题，也是发达经济体的普遍现象，各地鼓励生育政策的效果都不见得好。在这种情况下，引入外劳、吸引人才，是最快见效的手段。香港在收入水平、社会环境、文化教育等方面具有一定的优势，只要在入境政策方面作出一些调整，增加灵活性，找到合适的人手补充并不难，难处在于如何平衡各方的利益，如何化解劳工组织对基层“打破饭碗”的忧虑。尤其是，香港房价、租金长期高企不下，引入外援，难免会带来房价、租金及通胀上升的压力。新加坡近来不断提高置业印花税，比香港的“辣招”还要辣多倍，折射了外来资金和人口大量流入导致的副作用，其经验教训值得借鉴。
但香港毕竟不是新加坡。新加坡作为一个小国，任何问题都必须独自面对。香港作为一个直辖于中央m88的特区，有中央大力支持，更有广阔的发展腹地，这为解决问题提供了更大的底气。特区m88推出高端人才政策，很快就有一万多人申请，八成来自内地；香港缺少医护人手，广东方面雪中送炭，这些就很能说明问题。在解决就业、创业、安老、医疗、住房等方面，大湾区可提供大量的机遇，展现了无限的潜能。香港累积多年的老大难问题，有了解决的希望。
特区m88上一份人口政策报告发表于2015年，8年过去，香港的环境已发生重大变化。在“爱国者治港”的新时代，行政主导原则得到落实，行政立法良性互动积极配合，更有大湾区这个重大平台，香港应打开思路，拓宽格局，制定更宏观的人口政策蓝图。
Hong Kong needs a more macroscopic population policy blueprint
Hong Kong's birth rate drops to 0.8 per cent, the lowest in the world. A latest online survey shows that over 60 per cent of childless respondents aged between 18 and 40 have no plans to give birth. As a result, the problem of population ageing in Hong Kong can hardly be eased. This has a far-reaching impact on Hong Kong's sustainable development, concerning various aspects such as education, elderly care services, housing and labour policy. In view of the current predicament, the SAR Government should continue to foster a childbearing friendly environment and ease immigration policy and, moreover, further enhance Hong Kong's population policy from a macroscopic perspective of the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (Greater Bay Area) and striving for the best allocation of resources.
Of the deep-rooted structural imbalances and problems in Hong Kong, one is the change in the demographic structure. Compared with three decades ago, the median age of the population in Hong Kong society rises from 31 to 43; the median ages at first marriage for bridegrooms and brides noticeably increase; the total fertility rate decreases from 1,281 live births per 1,000 women of childbearing age to more than 700 at present. In order to encourage childbearing, previous terms of the SAR Government had launched quite a few measures including increasing Child Allowance in taxation, expanding child care services and extending paternity leave, which regrettably remain not so effective. The above-mentioned survey reveals the reasons why married couples decline to have children: 76.9 per cent of the respondents blame on insufficient living space and 63.9 per cent say the responsibilities for a parent are too heavy a burden. When asked how to boost their willingness to give birth to children, more than half say the education environment should be improved or economic supports should be provided for childbearing and childrearing.
A problem-oriented approach must be taken in order to boost fertility desire. The SAR Government is strengthening the effort to find more land to build more homes. With the Northern Metropolis East Lantau Metropolis plans being carried through, "where to find land" now has a clear direction. Needless to say, finding more land to build more homes cannot be done at a stroke, hence substantial improvement of living space can hardly be expected in the short run. As for the increase of childcare services, it is restricted by space and shortage of labour. Moreover, the decrease in the number of tax payers and our narrow tax base set an upper limit of resources for Hong Kong to support childbearing. So in the foreseeable future low birth rate will remain in Hong Kong, and whole society will become "ageing" day by day, and shortage of manpower in various sectors will intensify. This is the reality we have to face.
Low fertility rate and population ageing is a worldwide problem and also a common phenomenon among developed economies. Policies adopted in various places to encourage childbearing all appear not so effective. Under such circumstances, importation of labour and attraction of talents are the fastest and most effective means. Hong Kong has certain advantages in income level, social environment, culture and education. So it is not so difficult for Hong Kong to find suitable manpower supplement after making some adjustment in our immigration policy to increase its flexibility. The difficulty lies in how to balance the interests of all parties involved, and how to ease the worries of labour organisations about "breaking the rice bowls" of grass-roots workers. In particular, as housing price and rental in Hong Kong remain high for a long time, importation of labour inevitably will exert upward pressures on housing price and rental as well as inflation. Singapore recently has kept increasing stamp duty rates for home purchases, which now are much harsher than Hong Kong's "harsh measures", indirectly showing the side effect caused by the influx of foreign capital and personnel in large quantity. Its experience and lesson are worth drawing on.
But Hong Kong is not Singapore after all. As a small country, Singapore has to face any and all problems by itself alone. Hong Kong, as an SAR directly under the Central Government, enjoys the strong support of the Central Government and has a vast hinterland to back up its development, which give Hong Kong greater confidence to face and solve problems. Shortly after the launch of the Top Talent Pass Scheme (TTPS), the SAR Government has received more than 10,000 applications, of which 80 percent came from the Mainland. As Hong Kong suffers a shortage of healthcare manpower, Guangdong sends help in the SAR's hour of need. These are telling examples. For Hong Kong society to deal with issues such as providing jobs, starting businesses, elderly care services, healthcare and housing, the Greater Bay Area could provide enormous opportunities and show unlimited potentials. Now there are hopes for Hong Kong to resolve its long-standing tough problems accumulated over the years.
The SAR Government's last report of population policy was delivered in 2015. Eight years have passed since then and Hong Kong's environment has undergone sharp changes. In the new era of "patriots governing Hong Kong", the executive-led principle is implemented and the executive authorities and the legislature interact benignly and cooperate proactively. And adding to this, there is such an important platform as the Greater Bay Area. Hong Kong should open its mind and broaden its horizon to work out a more macroscopic population policy blueprint.
